Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.
Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.
A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict
The military government is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.
Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.
"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.
More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.
Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.
Logistical Nightmare and Coercion
Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.
The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.
All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.
A Limited Vote
The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.
There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.
A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.
Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.
International Condemnation
"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.
Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.
The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".
"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".
